Future scenarios for the European airline industry

Our scenario study on the European airline industry focuses particularly on network carriers. We have developed four scenarios for the industry in the year 2015.

Will low-cost airlines operate all intra-European flights by 2015? Will an ongoing economic crisis permanently change customer requirements and demand for air travel? Are China, India or the countries of South America the major growth markets for traditional European network carriers like Lufthansa, British Airways or Air France? Or will these companies continue to grow strongly in the international arena based on their solid European network and customer base? In this study, we aim to provide answers to these questions and we show implications for managing airline companies today.

The globalized economy is more and more dominated by complexity, volatility and uncertainty. Many aspects of the future are impossible to forecast accurately. No single ‘right’ projection can be derived from past behavior. As one of the leading global scenario experts Herman Kahn stated that scenarios allow and encourage decision makers to think the unthinkable. They enable managers to generate new insights and allow to prepare for and to proactively react to possible future developments.